Senate Republicans should work with the Biden administration to pass another economic relief bill

They probably won't, but they should

Yesterday, President-elect Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion economic relief proposal. The plan includes a new round of $1,400 checks for each American, a large expansion of the Child Tax Credit, aid to state and local governments, increased unemployment benefits, more funding for vaccines, and lots more.

The Biden team has signaled that they will attempt to pass this package with 60 votes in the Senate, meaning that they would need 10 votes from Senate Republicans to get the bill through. Over the next few weeks, Senate Republicans will need to decide whether President-elect Biden’s proposal is something they can get behind.

One option is for Senate Republicans is to pronounce the proposal “dead on arrival,” refuse to take part in negotiations over the bill, and withhold their votes from the final package. This option will be appealing for many lawmakers — because there are plenty of things for Senate Republicans to dislike in President-elect Biden’s proposal:

• It would result in a massive increase in federal spending, which many Republicans are opposed to on principle. It’s not even clear that the economy actually needs an additional $300 billion of stimulus per month, when the output gap looks to be more like $80 billion.

• It would offer $350 billion to state and local governments, an amount that many Republicans think is too large, compared to actual revenue shortfalls. Furthermore, the proposal does not address concerns about moral hazard (i.e. the possibility that states and localities might be less fiscally responsible going forward if they know that the federal government will always bail them out).

• It would provide a $25 billion fund just for childcare companies. Many Republicans don’t like subsidies for center-based childcare that leave out families who prefer home-based childcare.

• It would raise the federal minimum wage to $15/hour. Republicans have long opposed this idea, with many arguing that minimum wages should be set by states and localities based on regional economic conditions.

In addition, from a purely political standpoint, opposing the Biden proposal would seem to offer several advantages. It could make the incoming Biden administration look extreme and divisive, unable to pass any bills that can garner bipartisan support. It would help keep the Republican caucus united, avoiding the internal rifts that would arise if some members broke off to work with Biden. It would play well with the Republican base, many of whom question the legitimacy of the Biden presidency. And it would be the path of least resistance: Opposition to a Democratic presidency is a stance that Congressional Republicans are used to and comfortable with.

Despite all of this, I think that it would be a mistake for Senate Republicans to offer blanket opposition to Biden’s economic relief proposal. There are a number of good reasons — both principled and tactical — for Senate Republicans to come to the table and try to negotiate a relief package that they can get behind.

First, on the merits, the basic approach of Biden’s proposal is right: Americans do need more economic relief. Over the past year, U.S. individuals and businesses have made considerable sacrifices to keep the broader community safe — which is why the broader community owes them economic support, to try to make them whole. This is a principle that Congressional Republicans have endorsed multiple times, passing large economic relief bills in March (with 49 Senate Republican voting in favor) and December (with 44 Senate Republicans voting in favor).

And what Congress has done so far hasn’t been enough. Expanded unemployment benefits are set to expire in March — long before the pandemic will be over — which will leave many of the worst-off Americans in the lurch. Every day, another 500 small businesses are forced to shut down permanently. And leading conservative economists are warning that “you want to be careful about doing too little.” All of this means that, for Senate Republicans, a package that expands economic relief for Americans shouldn’t be a non-starter.

Second, by coming to the table, there’s a chance that Senate Republicans will actually be able to improve the substance of the bill. Republicans might be able to increase the amount of aid for small businesses, place conditions on funds for state and local governments, and scale back items in the package (such as a $15 minimum wage) that they find objectionable.

Republican Senators will have at least some leverage to request these changes, because the Biden team wants the bill to pass with 60 votes — both for the optics of bipartisanship and for procedural reasons. Without 10 Republican votes in the Senate, Democrats would be forced to pass the relief package using the budget reconciliation process, which is slower and more restrictive. Because Biden wants Republican Senators on board, he might be willing to make concessions to get their votes.

Third, if Senate Republicans refuse to come to the table, that still won’t be enough to kill the bill. As mentioned, if there aren’t 60 Senate votes for Biden’s relief bill, Democrats can always pass the bulk of the package through the budget reconciliation process, which only requires 51 votes. There are reasons why Democrats would prefer not to go down this route, but you can bet that they’ll do it if they have to. As a result, even unified opposition from Congressional Republicans wouldn’t be effective at stopping the Biden economic package. If you can’t beat them, there’s less reason to fight them.

Fourth, it’s likely that Biden’s economic relief proposal will be popular. Americans like receiving cash from the federal government, and the idea of large checks has overwhelming support. If $1,400 checks are going to show up in Americans’ bank accounts no matter what, Republicans should make sure they can take at least partial credit for them.

Finally, Senate Republicans should consider the long-term political ramifications of their actions. Over the last decade, the left wing of the Democratic Party has been growing more vocal, more radical, and more powerful. But Joe Biden won his party’s nomination by arguing that only his brand of moderate politics would convince Republicans to cease their obstruction. If Republicans refuse to come to the table on Biden’s economic relief package, they will discredit Biden’s theory of change, and will ultimately empower the most extreme elements of the Democratic Party.

None of this is to say that Senate Republicans should endorse the Biden economic relief package in its current form. But they should express support for the idea of more economic relief and a willingness to negotiate in good faith over the details.